Finally, the worst-kept secret in Nigerian political circus is confirmed.It is, of course, no longer news that the political hurricane in the self-acclaimed Africa’s biggest political party – only in terms of membership though – appears to be reaching a defining and definite climax. Alas, weeks and months of maneuvering and apparatchiks in the nation’s ruling party has given way to what many had anticipated for quite sometimes now. And it seems Nigerian electorates are set for an interesting time ahead; perhaps with strands of confusion at the moment. But one thing is as clear as daylight: the political landscape in Nigeria SHALL never be same henceforth, at least for years to come.
For keen political observers, the question of ‘how did the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) get here?’ needs no further deliberations, at this juncture, as it all unfolds right before our very eyes. The self-inflicted implosion in the PDP had facets which were – maybe unconsciously but gradually – integrated into becoming a full-blown vicious torrential crisis.
It has been graduation of one crisis to another ever since Dr. Bamanga Tukur took the mandate as the party’s National Chairman in March 2012. He never enjoyed widespread legitimacy among stakeholders in the party and allegation of ‘dictatorial leadership’ initially leveled against him soon gave way to mushroom of accusations which – amongst others – revolve around lack of intra-party democracy and strategic alienation of the party’s so-called ‘dissidents.’
Nonetheless, the Adamawa-born administrator’s seat at the Wadata Plaza remained unshaken despite his thickening unpopularity in some quarters. He enjoys unyielding backing of Aso-Rock which sees him as the only logical choice in the preservation of its 2015 interests in this desperately unpredictable political habitation.
The machineries that were set in motion by these political gladiators within the PDP to test each other’s wits started producing perturbing frictions which refused to be greased by side-talks and intermittent dialogue. Having realized that the vanguard of the dissenting forces is being led by some state governors on the platform of the party, the presidency and its co-travelers employed a gamble by adopting the infamous ‘divide and rule’ tactic. A PDP Governors Forum was initiated under the leadership of Akwa-Ibom state governor, Godswill Akpabio, by the party’s hierarchy. This was perceived by many analysts as a calculated attempt at waning the influence of a certain Rotimi Amaechi, who sits as Chairman, the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF), and whose relationship with Abuja has since assumed a Tom and Jerry-like outlook – due to his perceived ‘unguided’ political ambition – earlier in the year. His subsequent declaration to re-contest the chairmanship seat of the NGF was met with open disapproval from the echelon of the party.
Governors in the opposition fold, especially the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), saw the need to exploit the chaos in the camp of their arch-rivals and quickly queued behind Amaechi who faced PDP-anointed Jonah Jang in the May 24 contest. Unfortunately for the PDP, Amaechi was able to garner 19 votes against 16 of Jang; though the latter refused to accept defeat and has since parades himself as the authentic NGF chairman. Amaechi was subsequently suspended from the party due to his unyielding recalcitrant nature; yet, he sneaked into Abuja preparatory to the rescheduled national convention of the party on August 30 after attempt to hijack the leadership of Rivers state House of Assembly by a group of five lawmakers in July resulted in a bloody fracas and damaged public property.
While in Abuja, Amaechi joined 6 other PDP dissident governors from the northern region who had earlier crisscrossed the length and breadth of the country expressing their grievances to former national leaders. The six: Kwara State Governor, Ahmed Abdulfatah; Jigawa’s Sule Lamido; Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto State; Niger State’s Babangida Aliyu; Rabiu Kwankwanso of Kano State; and Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State, staged a dramatic walk-out from the Eagle Square venue of the convention upon complaint that their respective delegates were disenfranchised from voting. They soon converged at an Abuja hotel to declare a ‘new party’ called the New-PDP. The so-called rebels were led by former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; the party’s former secretary, Kawu Baraje alongside embattled former governor of Osun state, Olagunsoye Oyinlola.
This daring move forced the presidency into taking the governors serious. It led to series of talks, none of which yielded any positives. The demands of the ‘Group of Seven’ (G7) governors – specifically the displacement of Tukur as party chairman and limitation of Jonathan’s presidency to 2015 – were deemed ‘unrealistic’ by Aso-Rock.
Simultaneously, as the crisis in the PDP was getting to the peak; so also, the oppositions were putting finishing touches to their conglomeration aimed at disposing the PDP from power come 2015. As soon as the green-light beamed for the initiation of oppositions’ convergence under the All Progressives Congress (APC) in July, a ploy to further deepen the crisis within PDP was hatched and successful orchestrated by APC’s political strategists. Overt courtship became the order of the day between the new megaparty and the G-7 governors. From Sokoto to Kano, Minna to Ilorin, and even to Port-Harcourt, the train of the oppositions move through the seven states with open hands, inviting the embattled state chief executives to jump the fast-sinking ship of the PDP. During their visit to Port-Harcourt, Amaechi promised the APC chieftains that he “will consult all the consultables” including the president before deciding on his political future. But many consider this a mere saying, just for the sake of it. Latest twist in events must have vindicated such individuals by now.
Therefore, it is sacrosanct to register that as Nigerians try to adjust to the latest reality stirring them in the face; the political impasse and its potency at changing the course of history has perhaps creates thick cloud of puzzlement rather than assurance of clarity as things stand. This, no doubts, possesses lots of implications which would only become clearer as the fog of recent months slowly vacate the space.
To initiate with, for those who are vast in political theories, they appreciate the place of ideology as the crux of any political movement. Not only does it signify the pivotal cursory of such movement, it is also the cardinal principle which dictates what a particular group stands for beyond its paraphernalia. Unfortunately, it has severally been lamented that Nigerian political elites are not neccessarily driven by ideological struggle but rather by parochial and primordial interests. It is difficult to present a valid objection against such belief when politicians cross-carpet from one party to another with reckless abandon like we have witnessed in the last fourteen years. The same reason why almost all the political parties in present day Nigeria have manifestoes that promise the same sets of programmes of free this, free that; without cogent explanation on how to get what done.
And for the PDP and Jonathan, it is indeed a time to ponder about the political mess that has engulfed the party of late. The inability of those concerned to practice politics devoid of egoistic clash and prudent management of divergent interests seem to be the greatest bane of the party. Add to that, the adamant approach to compromise must also be noted as a big minus to the party. The grandeur display of public opprobrium of some sycophants in government has also not helped matters in this very context. Surely, those left behind in the party would do well to embrace sincere stocktaking at this crucial moment.
With the recent development, it has been confirmed that the beautiful bride of Nigeria’s politics is the APC. It is simply the greatest beneficiary of PDP’s misfortune. However, one needs to tread with reasoning. As some have suggested, the problems in the PDP may have migrated into the APC with the acceptance of these erstwhile PDP gladiators. Many expect to see some divisions in the party when it comes to who gets what in 2015. It will therefore be interesting to see how exactly the new party will navigate the murky waters of Nigerian politics which seem to be swallowing PDP at the moment.
To conclude, while it is a welcome development that what appears to be a credible threat to the hegemony of the ‘umbrella cabal’, especially at the center, beckons in the next general elections in 2015, it is equally germane to establish that the alternative been presented to the electorates may – in actual fact – not bring the real change they have being praying for. This is because the convergence of these political ‘nightingales’ may neccessarily not have being influenced by genuine altruistic concern for the good of the common man, but rather by unquenchable thirst for continue dominance.
Twenty-four hours in politics, they say, is analogous to eternity; not least in Nigeria. Hence, we can only be rest assured that more drama will unfold even before 2015! Watch this very line.
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